Parameter Values

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Values for some model parameter values, such as birth or death rates, may be easily available from data; in other cases, such as vaccination rates, it may be appropriate to investigate a range of plausible values to see how they affect the model results. Often the most important and at the same time most difficult to estimate will be the value of the force of infection (see above).

Figure 15.3. Influence of latent period of infection on dynamics. Outputs from simple model shown in Figure 15.2 showing epidemic peaks in prevalence of infection (compartment Y) in absence of vaccination but with different durations for the period of latent infection prior to becoming infectious. It can be seen that increasing the latent period (here from 0.5 month (thin line) to 1 month (thick line)) increases the time interval between epidemic peaks.

Time (years)

Figure 15.3. Influence of latent period of infection on dynamics. Outputs from simple model shown in Figure 15.2 showing epidemic peaks in prevalence of infection (compartment Y) in absence of vaccination but with different durations for the period of latent infection prior to becoming infectious. It can be seen that increasing the latent period (here from 0.5 month (thin line) to 1 month (thick line)) increases the time interval between epidemic peaks.

Figure 15.4. Influence of vaccination on dynamics. More outputs from the simple model of Figure 15.2 showing the impact of vaccination in this model. Though the model is over simplistic, the results do show the increase in period between epidemics when a moderate level of vaccination is introduced (thick line) compared with a scenario with no vaccination (thin line) (doubling the rate of vaccination leads to immediate elimination of the infection).

Time (years)

Figure 15.4. Influence of vaccination on dynamics. More outputs from the simple model of Figure 15.2 showing the impact of vaccination in this model. Though the model is over simplistic, the results do show the increase in period between epidemics when a moderate level of vaccination is introduced (thick line) compared with a scenario with no vaccination (thin line) (doubling the rate of vaccination leads to immediate elimination of the infection).

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